After Donald J. Trump has become
a president-elect of the United States of America there has been an ongoing
debate about largely anything connected to that fact and not least about the
President's vision of the U.S. foreign policy. While there is no lack of
arguments from different experts, most of them agree that the change is coming
to that particular area of the functioning of the state.
The differences in opinions
expressed usually cover details of what may actually change. Max Boot even
argues in his recent article that Mr. Trump's foreign policy might not be that
different from that of Mr. Obama's by nature, however quite different in style.
If Obama wanted to withdraw from the world very carefully, Trump may not be so
subtle and gentle to the existing order and that may lead to the post-American
age sooner than later.
True enough also for the South
Caucasus, where eight years of the Obama administration have brought a clear
sense of withdrawal of the U.S. from the region both in terms of its geopolitical
influence and its general presence as a global power. Today, countries of the
region, as well as the vast majority of other states in the world are trying to
evaluate the consequences of the recent U.S. elections and predict what that
would mean for the policy of the U.S. towards their small but very
strategically located region, surrounded by bigger states such as Russia, Iran
and Turkey.
As the U.S. presidential
transition period is progressing, the states of the South Caucasus are watching
and analyzing the transition through the prism of their own interests. A recent
announcement of the Ambassador of the United States and Co-Chair of the Minsk
Group of OSCE James Warlick on his Twitter account that he would be stepping
down from his position and leaving the State Department has made all the
regional news' headlines in the South Caucasus. This news generated a lot of
interest due to the fact that James Warlick is an American representative in
the Minsk Group that is charged with the meditation and resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan with two other
Co-Chairs from France and Russia. Moreover, at the same time news hit that
Ambassador Warlick will join the Egorov Puginsky Afanasiev & Partners law
firm. He himself described this company as "...Russia's largest and most
prestigious law firm" in a tweet, that he apparently later deleted.
Egorov Puginsky Afanasiev &
Partners law firm (or EPA&P) has been established in 1993 with offices in
Moscow, St. Petersburg and associated office in London. It specializes in
representation of foreign companies in Russia and Russian companies abroad.
Reportedly it is also quite connected to the Russian government and businesses.
The soon-to-be-former U.S. diplomat is planning to join this law firm as a
partner.
Ambassador Warlick has taken the
position of the Co-Chair of the Minsk Group in September 2013 and will remain
in this position until the end of this year. His appointment was made during
the second term of the Obama administration and if the position he is going to
take after should be viewed as any indicator, the attitude of Obama’s foreign
policy advisors towards the main security threat in the South Caucasus becomes
quite clear.
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has
reaffirmed its position as the main security threat in the South Caucasus
region after the recent escalation in April 2016. That escalation led to both
the short-lived re-intensification of negotiations process in this conflict and
the arms race between Armenia and Azerbaijan reaching new levels with Armenia
having demonstrated that it acquired 9K720 "Iskander" (known in NATO
terminology as SS-26 Stone) mobile short-range ballistic missile systems from
Russia in September 2016. The acquisition of such sophisticated and modern weaponry
by one of the sides of this unstable conflict brings on the pressure to the
other side to keep up and procure equal capabilities both in terms of offense
and defense. 9K720 are capable of a very accurate targeting on the distance of
up to 500 km (approx. 311 miles). In comparison, the distance between capitals
of Armenia and Azerbaijan is around 400 km.
Acquisition of missile systems by
Armenia followed the aforementioned re-intensification of negotiations. This
dynamics in negotiation process have been very visible during the summer and
then gradually went down right after Armenia have demonstrated the systems in
the beginning of fall. Another feature of the said summer was the crisis that
Yerevan have lived through with hostage situation and "Sasna Tsrer"
terrorist group. The pattern clearly indicates that there was a possibility of
the processes around Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to develop in more peaceful way.
Instead, Armenia chose to move on with show of strength and incite even more
serious arms race, simultaneously backing off in negotiations.
Hence, after the two consecutive
terms of the Obama administration, the peak year of 2016 resulted in both the
unprecedented military escalation and gradually new levels of arms race in the
South Caucasus - a general outcome of a foreign policy that aims at withdrawing
from the world and pivoting towards isolationism. If Trump's administration is
to continue within the same general direction in the U.S. foreign policy, it is
quite possible that the processes of militarization and intensification of the
hostilities in the region will pick up a new pace with the more aggressive
withdrawal policies of the new administration. The South Caucasus may see
post-American era much sooner than many other regions in the world.
This may be very harmful to the
U.S. interests due to the fact that South Caucasus is seen as a region that
plays an important part in energy security of Europe that is provided by
Azerbaijan via Georgia and Turkey. The instability that could be brought by the
militarization and hostilities in the region may harm this important energy
security framework. In this context the region awaits the appointment of a new
Secretary of State in Trump's administration and that of a new U.S. Co-Chair of
the Minsk Group as to indicate how things are likely to develop for the region.
The election of Mr. Trump as the
next President of the U.S. has truly brought a lot of change. There is a chance
that if Mr. Trump appoints such people to the aforementioned positions that
will be quite aware of risk factors for South Caucasus and will be able to
adopt a realistic view on current processes and in retrospective, the described
dangerous trend can be stopped or even reversed. The negative stance of Mr.
Trump on lobbying organizations is another factor that may prevent the
Armenian-American lobby from intervening into U.S. foreign policy shaping
process. So change may turn out good after all.
Kamal Makili-Aliyev
Doctor habilitatus of Laws
07.12.2016
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